Parts of northern England could run dry by 2035

Parts of northern England could run dry by 2035

Aug 29, 2019 | Inspiration

 

The Guardian
 
 
 
 

 

 

Parts of northern England could run dry by 2035, report reveals

Patrick Barkham     29th August 2019

 

Demand for water could outstrip supply by 2035 in parts of northern England, according to a report.

Recent focus on near-future water shortages has been on dry south-east England, where London’s consumption of water already outstrips supply in dry years, and the water companies that serve the capital are located in areas classified as seriously water stressed.

But the report for the thinktank IPPR North warns that, despite its abundance of water, the north could also become water stressed, with significant reductions in rainfall and water flow alongside population increase, economic growth and shortcomings in water companies’ efforts to reduce leakage. The report says northern powerhouse projects could be at risk unless politicians plan ahead for the climate crisis.

In Yorkshire and the Humber, demand could outstrip supply by 2035 unless households and businesses reduce their water use, the report warns. a group of people walking down the street: York after the Foss burst its banks in 2015. The report says more floods, as well as droughts, are likely. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

© Getty Images York after the Foss burst its banks in 2015. The report says more floods, as well as droughts, are likely. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Although leakages are down by 38% from their mid-1990s peak, leakage rates have flatlined over the last decade. Household water use is slowly reducing, but the current average of 141 litres per person per day is still significantly higher than Germany’s 121 litres per day, according to the report.

The north accounts for 41% of all water abstracted across England, but it relies far more on surface water than elsewhere in the country. With global heating, the likelihood of drought is projected to increase while average summer river flows may decrease, reducing water availability, even as the risk of flooding is likely to increase, particularly in winter.

Places around the world already affected by climate change:

Antarctica

Since 1992, the frozen continent has lost more than 3.3 trillion tons of ice, resulting in rise in global sea levels by a quarter inch (0.63 centimeters), according to a study published in the journal Nature. Researchers estimate that the rate at which ice is lost has soared from 73 billion metric tons per year in 2007 to 219 billion tons in 2017 – a triple increase that could increase sea levels six inches (15.2 centimeters) by 2100.

The west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula is one of the most rapidly warming parts of the planet. This has affected the distribution of penguin colonies along the coast as sea ice conditions have changed, reports Discovering Antarctica. Melting snow has seen increased plant coverage. Many glaciers have retreated and ice shelves have collapsed.

Amazon rainforest – South America

The world’s largest tropical rainforest (it covers approximately 40 percent of the continent) has not only experienced rising deforestation but also extreme drought that has left it susceptible to fires, says a report published by the United Nations Environment Program. Entire species of vegetation and animals are on the brink of extinction

Dead Sea – Bordering Israel, West Bank and Jordan

The saltwater lake has shrunk by a third over the last 40 years since development in the region started. Sinkholes are appearing where the water has receded, while mineral extraction by cosmetic companies has further eroded it. Rainfall in the region has declined and a study conducted by Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory found that thousands of

Baobab trees – Southern Africa

One of the oldest living organisms in Africa, these trees can live up to 3,000 years and are often called “the tree of life.” However, over the past 12 years, five of the six largest and nine of the 13 oldest have died, either completely or partially. According to a study published in Nature Plants, this may be due to climate change. “We suspect the demise of monumental baobabs may be associated at least in part with significant modifications of climate conditions that affect southern Africa in particular,” the report says. 

Cape Town – South Africa

Popular with tourists, this coastal city came perilously close to literally running out of water early in 2018. The situation forced officials to restrict the amount of water an individual, home or building could use in a day. At their most extreme, these restrictions capped daily usage at a maximum of 50 liters per person.

As of December 2018, the mayor’s office has raised that limit to 105 liters but other rules, like the flushing of toilets (only with greywater or non-drinking water, and only when absolutely necessary) remain in force. 

Venice – Italy

Locals have slowly come to accept the flooding of Piazza San Marco (pictured) and other low-lying areas of the city but, with ocean levels rising, Venice is inundating further. The city of canals is sinking fast enough to become uninhabitable by the end of this century, scientists at the Venice in Peril fund have warned.

Great Barrier Reef – Australia

The largest coral reef in the world, covering more than 132,973.5 square miles (344,400 square kilometers), has started showing signs of damage due to rising ocean temperatures. Vast regions have experienced coral bleaching – a condition where the coral turns white and is prone to mass death. A report by the ARC Center of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies found that around 93 percent has experienced bleaching to some degree. 

Rhone Valley – France

The winemaking region has sprawling vineyards that are slowly being affected by increasing temperatures. In a profession where even a small degree change can cause differences in the produce, or even completely ruin it, a report published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences forecasts an 85 percent decrease in wine production in the combined Bordeaux, Rhone and Tuscany region.

Sudan

Erratic rainfall and increasing desertification, accompanied by intense droughts, have pushed temperatures so high in the north African country that harvests are being ruined. Warming temperatures have rendered farmlands unsuitable and will continue to affect the country’s food security, according to a report published by the World Food Program and the UK Met Office. Gigantic dust storms called haboob (pictured) have also become more commonplace in recent years.

Lagos – Nigeria

The city is made up of a mainland and a series of islands that are all at risk of flooding with increasing sea levels. To prevent that, efforts are on to build an artificial mega city, named Eko Atlantic, on reclaimed land and then build a seawall. Researchers like environmental writer Martin Lukacs have named this “climate apartheid,” as the wall will push storm surges from more affluent locales to neighboring unprotected areas. 

Key West – Florida, US

Floods during the Atlantic hurricane season have caused increasing damage in the archipelago. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers estimates sea levels will rise 15 inches (38 centimeters) over the next 30 years, submerging many parts of the city.

Dar es Salaam – Tanzania

The coastal city is growing so quickly it has been unable to consider the harm it is causing to the ecosystem. With increased rainfall, it is increasingly prone to floods and downpours, causing $47.3 million worth of damages in just the area surrounding the Msimbazi River, according to the World Bank. 

Maldives

Researchers at the University of Exeter have found that elevated surface ocean temperatures during the 2016 El Niño led to a major coral die-off event in the Maldives. Further rise in temperatures due to global warming will only worsen the situation of the coral reefs, scientists warn. 

Yamal Peninsula – Russia

In Russia’s far north, permafrost is melting as the weather has become increasingly unpredictable. Giant craters (pictured) are forming as frozen grounds start thawing. The winter season has shortened and unusually warm temperatures caused an outbreak of anthrax in 2016. “Such anomalous heat is rare for Yamal, and that’s probably a manifestation of climate change,” said Alexei Kokorin, head of WWF Russia’s climate and energy program.

Arctic

The Arctic is warming at almost twice the global average with sea ice disappearing from the ecosystem. While this has made the waters more navigable through the Northwest Passage, it is also contributing to a rise in global sea level. In the future, this could make Arctic fisheries disappear and harm the coastline, according to the WWF

Abidjan – Ivory Coast

Situated along the Atlantic Coast, the city’s coastline, and specifically the harbor areas, are experiencing high erosion rates, according to news reports. The Ebrie lagoon has also become increasingly polluted and this has led to the loss of fisheries. Heavy and untimely rains are also threatening cocoa growers in the region.

Alaska – US

Over the last 150 years, snowfall in south-central Alaska has increased dramatically by 117 percent due to climate change, according to a study published in the journal Scientific Reports. Another report, by the Alaska Division of Public Health, states that additional diseases, lower air quality from more wildfires, melting permafrost, and disturbances to local food sources are some of the outcomes of climate change affecting the area.

Northern Italy

A mild 2007 winter in the region allowed Asian tiger mosquitoes to breed and when a tourist returned from India with chikungunya, the mosquitoes became the carriers of the new disease. According to the WHO, this was the first European outbreak of a tropical disease. The localized epidemic was repeated in 2017. In a study that year, researchers at the University of Bayreuth reported the spread of the virus was facilitated by climate change and that the “risk of infection will continue to increase in many regions of the world through the end of the 21st century. If climate change continues unchecked, the virus could even spread to southern Europe and the U.S.” 

Mumbai – India

The changing monsoon season that has caused intense flooding in the economic capital over the past decades has been attributed to climate change in a report published by global development research resource Eldis. The World Bank found that changing rainfall patterns in India was one of many impacts of climate change. “An extremely wet monsoon that currently has a chance of occurring only once in 100 years is projected to occur every 10 years by the end of the century,” according to the report.  

Osaka – Japan

The 2.69 million people of the city have been battered by unseasonable typhoons and torrential rains that cause extensive floods. If temperatures continue to rise, the entire commercial region of Osaka could go under water by the 2070s, predict the Union of Concerned Scientists. 

The Alps – Europe

One of the most famous skiing regions in the world, the Alps stretch across eight countries. Due to their low altitude, they have seen significant snow melt during shorter winter periods over the years. Around three percent of Alpine glacial ice is lost per year and experts from the University of Innsbruck in Austria believe the glaciers could disappear by 2050 if the melting continues.

Patagonia ice fields – Chile and Argentina

One of the largest ice fields in the world is receding at shockingly fast speeds. A Nature Geoscience paper found that accelerated melting ice fields account for nearly 10 percent of the global sea-level change from mountain glaciers. Over the last few years, dozens of glacier lakes have virtually disappeared.

Tuvalu, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Solomon Islands, Tokelau and Tuvalu

These Pacific island nations are slowly being submerged and, by 2100, many of the lower islands could be uninhabitable, news agencies have reported. The Pacific Climate Change Science Program study found Tuvalu (pictured) would not only see a rise in sea level but also more extreme rainfall and intense cyclones. Five reef islands in the Solomon Islands have already been lost, while another six are eroding quickly.

Glacier National Park – Montana, US

Once home to over 150 glaciers, Montana’s majestic park now has just about 26 left. Scientists, including those from the U.S. Geological Survey, believe rapid climate change could see that number shrink to zero between 2030 and 2080, which would not only leave the park without a glacier but also severely disrupt its ecosystem.

San Blas Islands – Panama

Flooding every rainy season is becoming a common event on the Caribbean island. The reefs around the area have been mined to build up the islands to prevent sinking, reported Reuters. A scientist from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute quoted in the report said, “It’s another example that climate change is here, and it’s here to stay.” The report also cites natives are prepared to relocate if the rise in sea level continues.

The report says: “Although much of the north – unlike parts of the south of England – is not considered water stressed, the region’s water security cannot be taken for granted. There are very limited opportunities to substantially increase the supply of water, for example by building new reservoirs, because of a lack of water availability, abstraction limitations, and the likely impact upon the natural environment.

“Instead, to ensure the region remains water resilient, we will have to make better use of our existing water supply by managing demand, reducing leakage and encouraging greater water efficiency.”

While the north-east is expected to have a water surplus for several decades, water could also become a valuable asset to the north-west, with water management schemes potentially enabling it to supply other regions of England.

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for full report to see  Animals threatened by climate change

Jack Hunter, the author of the report and a research fellow at IPPR North, said: “This is a shared problem that requires shared solutions. Water companies need to deliver on their plans to dramatically reduce leakages, and households, businesses and political leaders all need to treat water much more responsibly in future.”

The report also recommends that water companies should be legally required to be part of any strategic planning processes and consultees on individual planning applications.

The Environment Agency has warned that England could run short of water within 25 years unless drastic action is taken to stop leaks, improve efficiency of water usage in the home and transform public attitudes.

“We need water wastage to be as socially unacceptable as blowing smoke in the face of a baby or throwing your plastic bags into the sea,” said its chief executive, Sir James Bevan, earlier this year.

According to the agency, it will be necessary to build controversial reservoirs, as well as energy-intensive desalination plants such as the one at Beckton on the Thames, which has supplied water to London since 2010.

 

a close up of some grass: The dried-up bed of Wayoh Reservoir near Bolton during the heatwave of 2018.

The dried-up bed of Wayoh Reservoir near Bolton during the heatwave of 2018